The Breakthrough Effect: how tipping points can accelerate net zero

“

“We know that some systems can be pushed toward positive tipping points after which change becomes unstoppable. We must do everything we can to reach these tipping points as soon as possible, and this report helps provide critical information on where tipping points lie and how we might approach them more quickly.”

Kelly LevinChief of Science, Data and Systems Change for the Bezos Earth Fund

“

The Paris Effect made it clear that zero-carbon technologies are advancing rapidly and the next wave of creating prosperity lies in the drive to the net-zero economy. The Breakthrough Effect now shows us the ‘How’ – what the conditions are that countries, companies and investors should target to unleash accelerated growth and the new sources of prosperity. Wise policy makers and investors will aim for the opportunities, jobs and resilience that can be delivered only through a net-zero economy

Prof. Nicholas SternProfessor of Economics, Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics

“

We are embarking on one of the most fundamental and rapid industrial transformations in history. The transition to a net zero global economy will unlock huge potential for growth and value creation as businesses and governments decarbonise. The financial sector is poised to enable and accelerate this transition by directing capital to where it can have the biggest impact. The Breakthrough Effect highlights the positive climate tipping points where the transformation will take place soonest and most swiftly, acting as catalysts in the market to drive net zero solutions to scale.

Dr Celine HerweijerGroup Chief Sustainability Officer, HSBC

“

The world is increasingly realising that the transition to clean energy will not be linear but exponential, driven by technological feedback loops: the more renewables you build, the cheaper they get. By identifying tipping points, and focusing action on achieving them, the shift towards a net-zero economy can be accelerated. This report provides a best in class look at where we are on key tipping points, how we can achieve them, and the cascading impacts that achieving them will have.

Adair TurnerChair, Energy Transitions Commission

“

The Paris Agreement inspired net zero ambitions from countries, companies and citizens. In turn this has accelerated low-carbon solutions – in some cases at exponential speed. The Breakthrough Effect shows us the power of human ingenuity, and of our individual and collective agency. It reaffirms the possibilities ahead if we - with deep intention - put our minds towards creating the conditions for positive tipping points.

Christiana FigueresCo-host of the podcast Outrage and Optimism and former Executive Secretary, UN Convention on Climate Change (2010-2016)

“

Two years ago, The Paris Effect – COP26 Edition report made clear that the move towards a cleaner, decarbonised economy had gained unstoppable momentum, pushed forward by not only regulators but markets themselves. Today, The Breakthrough Effect report shows us where we could see solutions build a net-zero economy that outcompetes incumbents. As we reach these tipping points, we will see that unstoppable momentum turn into exponential growth.

Hubert KellerSenior Partner, Lombard Odier

“

We know that radical shifts are required for meeting our climate and nature goals – from shifting diets, to restoring forests, to phasing out the internal combustion engine. How close are they to positive tipping points? And what are the barriers that must be removed so that change becomes irresistible and unstoppable? What's the special sauce that have led some issues to suddenly rise on the agenda and solutions emerge? This report helps us answer some of these essential questions.

Andrew SteerPresident and CEO, The Bezos Earth Fund

“

The transition to the net zero economy will happen exponentially. We know this. The Breakthrough Effect helps us understand where the tipping points lie that will set off unstoppable and accelerating change in sector after sector. Low-carbon technologies have advanced faster than expected already, and these tipping points are in striking distance, but not factored into most forecasts. If you want to remain competitive, read this report and set bolder targets now!

Nigel ToppingUN Climate Change High Level Champion, COP26

“

The Breakthrough Effect report is essential reading for leaders in government and business and sets out clearly the positive tipping points we need to prioritise to cut greenhouse emissions fast. The science shows that we are now approaching dangerous thresholds – or negative tipping points – in multiple bio-physical systems that risk locking us into devastating climate change for generations to come. Five of the six possible negative tipping points at the current level of warming are in the Arctic and Antarctic. We must cut global carbon emissions in half by 2030 and this collaborative report sets the credible course with far-reaching effects across ten of the highest-emitting sectors. If you want bang for your buck then read this report!”

Prof. Gail WhitemanProfessor of Sustainability at the University of Exeter Business School and Founder of Arctic Basecamp

“

Country ambitions on decarbonisation are too low. Systematically governments are under appreciating opportunities for exponential growth in low-carbon solutions once we reach tipping points. The Breakthrough Effect report provides a ‘map’ of where these tipping points lie and how to reach them faster. In addition, solutions are going to be cheaper than most policy makers realise. They can embrace the virtuous feedback loops that will speed progress. We need political leaders to study the data and drive these transitions at speed & scale, confident in explaining to their electorates that these pathways will deliver jobs growth and more resilient economies

Rachel KyteDean, Fletcher School, Tufts University

“

Solar electricity is already the cheapest electricity in many parts of the world, and with decreasing prices of batteries, is expected to become the cheapest firm of round clock electricity before 2025. This has been made possible by a number of public policy interventions; similar interventions across the energy economy would help us move rapidly towards a global net zero emissions goal. As the authors of The Breakthrough Effect rightly point out, in many sectors, powerful reinforcing feedback can help bring forward the tipping points. The challenge, of course, is that no one should be left behind

Ajay MathurDirector General, International Solar Alliance

“

I urge governments, investors and business leaders to use this important report to understand which actions they should prioritize today to drive the level of emissions cuts needed to get us on track for limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C. It is hugely encouraging to see that two of the technologies that are critical for halving emissions by 2030 – renewable electricity + storage, and electric vehicles – are already near the tipping point. But success is not guaranteed, nor is the speed of exponential growth post tipping point. Government policies and increased investment to rapidly scale up renewable electricity and charging infrastructure are essential to ensure that both renewables and EVs reach their full potential to cut emissions.

Maria MendiluceCEO We Mean Business Coalition

“

Market dynamics increasingly favor low-carbon technologies, with the rapidly falling costs of wind, solar, batteries, and electric vehicles already disrupting our economic systems. We have reached peak demand for fossil fuels and many clean energy solutions are competitive with, or cheaper than, fossil fuel alternatives. This disruption will only accelerate as the costs of clean energy technologies continue to fall. Governments, financial institutions, and corporate leaders should review The Breakthrough Effect to better understand and get ahead of the disruption that is underway.

Jon CreytsChief Executive Officer, RMI

“

Building the net-zero economy is the next great wave of value creation for society. The Breakthrough Effect highlights that positive socioeconomic tipping points are within striking distance and lays out the map of where these tipping points lie. Working together across companies and with governments, we can capture this opportunity. The time is now.

Siddharth SharmaGroup Chief Sustainability Officer, Tata sons

“

As zero-carbon solutions become competitive with fossil fuel-based incumbents, we reach tipping points that accelerate our capacity to scale deployment of sustainable infrastructure. This deployment – of charging networks, electricity grids and more – can in turn give rise to virtuous feedback loops that further lower costs and scalability. Development banks have a key role to play in emerging markets to marry private sector ideas & speed with the capacity of governments to drive this change at scale.
The Breakthrough Effect for the first time puts a clear spotlight on where these tipping points exist, showing where there are opportunities for strategic investment that will unlock exponential growth and value. Zero carbon solutions are not only good for people and planet, but also critical to create jobs and drive sustainable growth. Decarbonization is development, and there is no time to waste.

Ahmed M. SaeedVice President for East Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific / Asian Development Bank

“

Pushing to reach net zero is a huge economic opportunity that companies can realise by innovating and doing the work to develop solutions. The Breakthrough Effect shows us where low-carbon solutions could become better than today’s high-carbon incumbents: cheaper, more attractive to consumers, and widely available. Making this happen will require governments and climate innovators to work together.

Catherine McKennaChair of the UN High-Level Expert Group on the Net-Zero Emissions Commitments of Non-State Entities

“

The Breakthrough Effect report highlights the importance and timeliness of thinking and acting in systems to accelerate the net-zero transformation. We need to consider how much more effective we could be if we comprehend, embrace and design for dynamics of change in human systems, from politics and policy to societal norms. I welcome a report that highlights the opportunity before us; one that calls for our policy decision-making to build and reflect an understanding of these system dynamics. The report further calls attention to the role of international cooperation in creating the conditions for positive ‘super tipping points’ and ‘tipping point cascades’. This is extremely relevant to efforts underway in Europe through the Green Deal and EU Missions which offer a case in point to put this into action across national and market boundaries, and extend that further to international partnerships, to create the conditions for global-scale systemic change.

Dr Kirsten DunlopChief Executive Officer, Climate-KIC Group

“

We are facing intersecting crises across the global economy, but we cannot slow progress on climate action. This is why public-private collaboration, a single-minded focus on implementation and ambitious innovation will
be essential over the next decade. One of the most powerful things we can do is drive technology innovation that allows us to take more meaningful climate action which can help trigger a cascade of tipping points to accelerate the net zero transition.

Kate BrandtChief Sustainability Officer, Google

“

Climate change is now a race between the problem, which risks becoming exponential, and our solutions, which still lack the speed and scale to keep up. The Breakthrough Effect is the clearest plan yet for how we trigger a wave of positive tipping points that can transform the global economy and set humanity and our planet on a safe and hopeful path. This is how we get the future we want, and it presents tremendous opportunities for the companies who drive the change.

Paul PolmanBoard member at Systemiq and co-author of “Net Positive: how courageous companies thrive by giving more than they take"

“

The world is on track for climate disaster—but we still have the chance to change course this decade and keep the 1.5 goal within reach. The Breakthrough Effect outlines targeted interventions that could not be more opportune. These 3 positive tipping points can cascade across sectors to induce the systems transformation urgently needed to slash emissions and create a future where people, climate and nature can thrive.

Ani DasguptaPresident and CEO of World Resources Institute

“

The Breakthrough Effect zeroes in on net zero tipping points which will transform major sectors of the real economy. Smart money should be looking to capture the upside of these real economy transitions as the market drives faster adoption of zero-carbon solutions.

Rhian-Mari ThomasCEO of the Green Finance Institute