Led by 13 industry CEOs and backed by the technical expertise of over 40 member organisations, Project SkyPower is committed to making electro-sustainable aviation fuel (e-SAF) a commercial reality this decade.
The Project SkyPower Secretariat (delivered by Systemiq in partnership with the Green Finance Institute and Mission Possible Partnership) has published a new report on accelerating the take-off for e-SAF in Europe. The report identifies a window of opportunity for lower-emissions aviation: if the sector is to meet critical regulatory targets by 2030, the first large-scale e-SAF projects must reach final investment decision in less than two years.
Produced from clean hydrogen and captured CO2, e-SAF has emerged as a promising technology that can reduce aviation’s lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to fossil jet fuel.
Two-thirds of the global e-SAF pipeline is in Europe, where scaling up the technology could help secure the future of Europe’s 14 million aviation-related jobs, and create an €80+ billion market opportunity by 2050.* Europe is in a unique position to write the first chapter of the e-SAF story.
MANDATES
for e-SAF blending
(ReFuelEU and
UK SAF)
70%
of planned global
e-SAF capacity in Europe
~50%
of global SAF offtake
from European airlines
in 2022
EUR 80+ billion
in Europe in 2050
However, with no clear path to cost parity with fossil fuels, the Project SkyPower report concludes that the transition to e-SAF will not be driven by economics, but rather by political will – and a lack of scalable alternatives for decarbonising long-haul aviation.
To meet the EU’s and UK’s upcoming e-SAF mandates in 2030, between EUR 15–25 bn of capital investment is needed: 90% in the EU market and 10% in the UK.
To reach commercial-scale e-SAF production by 2030, a collective step-change is needed from producers, incumbent fuel suppliers, offtakers, financiers, policymakers, and public finance organisations to deliver five critical short-term actions.
- Ensure regulatory certainty on e-SAF mandates and penalties
- Secure public funding commitments via existing industry-generated tax revenues
- Establish bankable 10+ year offtake contracts (e.g. take-or-pay) for first e-SAF projects
- Establish low-interest loans and loan guarantees from the European Investment Bank, National Wealth Fund, UK Export Finance, national investment banks, and export credit agencies
- Develop more effective risk-sharing models that recognise the unique risk profile of e-SAF projects
Project SkyPower’s mission is to pave the way for the first large-scale e-SAF plants in Europe to reach Final Investment Decision (FID) by the end of 2025. Its goal is not only to drive progress towards 2030 regulatory targets (ReFuelEU Aviation and UK SAF Mandate), but also towards e-SAF market tipping points in the 2030s and exponential scale thereafter. The vision is to make e-SAF a commercial reality this decade, bringing the European aviation industry a vital step closer to a lower emissions future. Find out more here.
* Notes
The market opportunity number refers to offtake in Europe, not production, as production may occur also outside of Europe. High-level estimation assumes total SAF demand of 70 Mt by 2050; 35% of SAF to be e-SAF, price of e-SAF in the long run to be 3,000-4,500 EUR/tonne. The global market opportunity could be EUR 350+ bn. Sources: EASA, European Aviation Environmental Report 2022; BNEF 2023; Systemiq analysis.
